Partisan Games Of Credit & Blame

Thanks to the party line (i.e. Partisan) nature of Congress's votes on the economic stimulus package, the plan to turn around the worst financial crisis facing the country in more than 50 years, now carries not only enormous fiscal stakes but also political stakes that are nearly as large. Not one Republican in Congress voted for the bill. President Obama tried to woo some of them but, the bottom line is... they were elected by people who have no intention of siding with President Obama on anything and that isn't going to change anytime soon.

President Obama's advisers are betting that the historic legislation he signs today will bear fruit quickly and they plan to do everything they can to highlight evidence of it creating the jobs he has promised. That public relations effort kicks off some time today as a two-day swing through the West begins. But, the Republican Party has made its own bet: That the stimulus package the Democrats rushed through Congress will be deemed a failure by the time the 2010 elections arrive, leading voters to rebuke President Obama and reward the GOP with much-needed victories. (Whining and wishful thinking on their part. I hope the American people see just who is Bi-partisan and who is not.)

Whatever side proves to be right, the sharp, partisan lines over the stimulus bill make it plain that both parties intend to exact a political cost over last week's votes... and, their leaders are looking to history for inspiration as they consider how to maneuver in the weeks and months ahead.

The Democratic guide will be Franklin D. Roosevelt, who even with unemployment still above 20%, led House Democrats to pick up 9 seats in the 1934 mid-term elections. Senate majority whip Richard J. Durbin (Democrat-Illinois) carries with him a book called "Traitor To His Class," a new biography of how FDR built the Democratic domination that endured for three decades.

But, the House minority whip Eric Cantor (Republican-Virginia), who led the fight to deny President Obama every Republican vote for the plan, is studying Winston Churchill's role in leading the Tories in the late 1930s, a principled minority that was eventually catapulted into power over the Labor Party. He calls the stimulus bill "a stinker." (I could call him a few things but, I'm trying to be civil and objective here.)

If the economy turns around, President Obama could eventually benefit much as Bill Clinton did after pushing his economic recovery plan through Congress in 1993 with very little to no Republican support.

Though it was far smaller than President Obama's bill, Clinton's plan was nonetheless controversial at the time, requiring Vice-President Al Gore to cast the tie-breaking vote in the Senate. Republicans insisted then that the bill would be an albatross around Clinton's neck. And, they succeeded in using the controversial tax increases to help them sweep into power in the mid-term elections of 1994, when Newt Gingrich (Republican-Georgia) led a revolution of young and conservative House members. Remember the laughable "Contract With America"? Where is it and where are those clowns now? For that matter, has anyone seen Newt Gingrich lately? (I could've sworn I saw him with Elvis at the 7 Eleven last night.)

But, when the sluggish economy began to soar several years later, Clinton claimed full credit (as well he should have) and used Republican opposition to the legislation as fuel for his successful bid for re-election. Now, it is President Obama's turn and the political stakes, like the mammoth bill itself, are much larger. He has acknowledged that little else he does in the next four years will affect his legacy if jobs and prosperity have not returned.

President Obama told a crowd in Fort Myers, FL last week... "Now, look... I won't lie to you. If it turns out that a few years from now, people don't feel like the economy's turned around, we're still having problems, folks are still unemployed, and our health care system's not more efficient, then, you know, you guys won't applaud me the next time I come down here."

President Obama has never shied away from calling the stimulus package "my bill" while stumping for it around the country. With only three Republicans supporting the measure in Friday's votes, there is almost no political cover for him if it doesn't work.

And, Republicans have made it clear that they intend to try and shift the economic debate toward concern about the federal deficit. They are also preparing to use the ballooning deficit to renew their push for additional tax cuts. Groups including the Club for Growth (Growth of what? More economic downturns? Give me a break!) and GOP leaders such as former House Speaker Newt Gingrich say such cuts would do more to improve the economy than the spending plan would. (The operative words were "former House Speaker".)

Gingrich said in an interview, "The Republicans' job is to say, here's a model we know is going to work. If they do that, they will be astonished at how good 2010 will be. Democrats have taken a huge gamble. I can't imagine them spending $780 billion without so many examples of waste and corruption. Big bureaucratic spending... it never works." This from the party that got the country in this mess. Then, what does work? Trickle down economics? Give the fat cats tax breaks and they'll create more jobs? Tried that... didn't work! Come again, Newt. Better yet, don't. In the words of my grandmother, go somewhere, sit down, and shut up!

These same Republicans rarely worried aloud about the deficit during the spending spree of George W. Bush's presidency, as Bush largely ignored the mounting red ink as he waged war in Iraq and battled terrorism. Many conservative Republicans, including Senator John McCain (Arizona), blamed last year's congressional and presidential losses on the lack of fiscal discipline shown by their party under Bush's leadership. (Hmmmmm!)

But, the massive stimulus plan has given Republicans a political opportunity to try to erase the memory of those years by convincing the country that they have found religion again when it comes to spending. (Don't make me laugh!)

Cantor says bluntly that President Obama and the Democrats have decided to "assume ownership of the era of the bailout." And, he predicted that voters will recoil at the prospect of huge, growing deficits and an increase in the size and role of the federal government in their lives. He said Saturday, "I think the 2010 elections certainly will be a test for the mandate of change that this administration was elected with. I do think that there will be a price to pay."

But, some Republicans worry that it could be their party paying that price. Senator Arlen Specter (Pennsylvania), one of the three Republicans who voted for the legislation, said the GOP risks becoming "the party of Hoover," echoing a warning that Vice-President Richard B. Cheney delivered last year during negotiations over the Bush administration's rescue of the auto industry.

After President Herbert Hoover left office in 1933, amid the economic rubble of The Great Depression, Specter noted... "Not until Eisenhower came up decades later, did a Republican win the presidency, and he was a war hero."

In the coming weeks, if the stimulus package works as Democrats have described, federal money flowing into state coffers may allow many governors to announce that fewer layoffs are necessary. Construction projects that were delayed could start up again, providing much-needed work for laid-off construction workers. Consumer confidence could rebound, sending people to the stores again.

President Obama will be poised to take credit for such successes and he will, regardless of whether they are a result of the legislation he passed or not. This is just the spoils going to the winner. It's the nature of the beast.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (Democrat-California) said shortly after the bill passed the House on Friday... "We stand as Democrats ready to be accountable to the American people for this legislation and for the results we predict it will bring."

Karl Rove, Bush's top political adviser, predicted just that kind of Democratic bragging in an opinion article in the Wall Street Journal late last week... "If history is a guide, sometime late this year or early next year, the economy will rebound on its own. When that happens, Democrats will argue that their un-targeted, permanent spending actually revived the economy." (Like you guys wouldn't do the same thing!)

If Rove is right, Republicans could find themselves answering uncomfortable questions from their constituents about their no votes. In the meantime, much depends on which party succeeds in shaping public opinion about the effect of the legislation. The President's aides appeared yesterday on morning news programs to begin lowering expectations. Press secretary Robert Gibbs warned on CNN's "State of the Union" that it will take time before people see improvement in their lives.

Gibbs said, "I think it's safe to say that things have not yet bottomed out. They are probably going to get worse before they improve. But, this is a big step forward toward making that improvement and putting people back to work." For his part, Rove believes the 2010 elections could be a victory for the GOP. "The President won this legislative battle," he said in a Wall Street Journal column, "but at a high price -- fiscally and politically." It would have been an even higher price if he had not of fought aggressively for the passing of this bill and allowed our economy to slide even further down the toilet.