Wednesday, September 29, 2010

As The Pendulum Swings

The pendulum is swinging in another direction! That's what the pollsters are saying, but I don't tend to trust polls and nobody I know ever gets polled. When these pollsters are doing these polls, I never get called. I never get asked what I think and people who live around me never get asked or polled. So, just who are these pollsters talking to? When are they talking to them? And, better yet, how are these polls done?

According to pollsters, with the November elections exactly five weeks away, the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll shows that the battle for control of Congress has tightened, as key Democratic-leaning demographic groups are expressing more enthusiasm about the upcoming mid-terms. Well, it's about damn time!

Among so called "likely voters", Republicans now hold a three-point lead in the generic-ballot test for control of Congress, down from their nine-point lead last month. Just who are "likely voters"? Isn't anyone registered a likely voter? (I mean, I'm just asking.)

Despite what these pollsters are saying is just natural tightening, the overall dynamics heading into the election remain the same: Nearly 6 in 10 people think the country is headed in the wrong direction; just a 1/3 believe the economy will improve in the next year; President Barack Obama’s approval rating is stuck in the mid 40s; and political independents are favoring the GOP. Which goes to show that the Fox televison network is more popular than I thought... people aren't just watching "The Simpsons", "Family Guy", and NFL Football. They're tuning into Rush, Sean, and Glenn... and, they're listening to them! Who would have thought that?

This looks bad for the current party in power. "I still think you’re looking at a very difficult year for the Democrats", said GOP pollster Bill McInturff, who conducted the survey with Democratic pollster Peter D. Hart. In the poll, registered voters are split, 44% to 44%, over the party they prefer controlling Congress.

But, among likely voters, identified by their past voting history and their high level of interest in the November mid-terms, 46% prefer a Republican-controlled Congress, versus 43% who want a Democratic-led one. That’s a decline (though within the margin of error) from the 49-to-40%lead Republicans held in late August.

The pollsters attribute this tightening to increased enthusiasm for the upcoming mid-terms by African Americans (who saw a 6-point gain in high interest) and Hispanics (who saw an 11-point gain). But, young voters who helped fuel Barack Obama’s presidential victory in 2008, are now sitting on the sidelines. Just 35% percent of those ages 18-34 are enthusiastic about the election in November, versus 65% of seniors who say that they are. That disparity is a chief reason why President Obama traveled on Tuesday to a rally at the University of Wisconsin, while Vice President Joe Biden visited Penn State.

It's really hard to believe this but, (according to these mysterious pollsters) 60% of all respondents believe the country is on the wrong track, a small decrease from last month. In addition, 65% think the U.S. economy will either get worse or stay the same in the next 12 months. And, 73% disapprove of the job that Congress is doing. The president’s job-approval rating stands at 46%, up one point from August.

Of course, this happens at one time or another to every president. You know what I'd really like though... I'd like to see a surprise come election day so all of these "experts " and pollsters can be proven wrong and see the Tea Party movemant soundly defeated. It could happen... but, it's not likely to happen because people tend to believe what the pollsters say, even though polls don't win elections, voters do.

The American people are like sheep... well fed and waiting to be led by anybody. There are a few critical thinkers out there, but are there enough to swing that pendulum in a different direction? One can only hope!


Rich Fitzgerald said...

What they are trying to say is that all those voters who turned out for Obama, especially among the swing voting African American population, those voters aren't likely to come out in mass. With that being the case, the wing nuts on the right have a good chance of pulling all the fanatics out of hiding for one day of voting an upend the current party structure.

You are right about one thing. I've never met anyone who has ever been polled. It wasn't until I was an adult that I met someone who was actually part of the television Nielson rating system, so who knows how long it will be before I meet a political poll participant.

Arlene said...

Keith, I think these pollsters have an agenda of their own. They're predicting the future based on the likelihood of voters on a particular day under particular circumstances. If they're right, then they'll crow about it. When they're wrong, we won't hear another word.

We in PA saw what happened in the rain on the spring primary day. If it's a mild, sunny November day, then we're in luck, maybe. Perhaps voters will go to the polls.

I also like to remember that good always trumps evil. These hateful tea partyers will never succeed. Look at the news in New York, Kentucky, and Alaska. The guy running for governor in New York has had the curtain pulled back. The two running for senate in KT and AL are being questioned in depth by the real people of their state and the truth about their ideas is coming out. That guy is Alaska wants to end Social Security eventhough he admits it is the sole source of income for his own parents.
Yes, people are sheep headed for a shearing.

Solomon said...

I get so frustrated even discussing politics these days. There are so many people out there buying into all this tea party nonsense and what the GOP are trying to sell that it is enough to make me want to throw up.

But I like what you said Arlene, that we need to always remember good always trumps evil. And that all these hateful tea partier's will never succeed in the end. They can rally all the haters they want. But I think it is already becoming apparent to many what is really going on.

Lord willing the country will make it through all of this mess. And as we know, with the Lord on our side anything is possible!


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